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2024 NFL Draft Odds: How sports books see the first round playing out according to betting odds

with 2024 nfl draft Coming closer, the betting markets can give an indication of how the selection may play out as they are efficient and quite smart. Speculators with inside information can place large bets on the markets and significantly inflate the numbers. Want a good example? Caleb Williams is now at -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100) to be selected first overall.

Insiders can change the betting market in even a second. But bullish bettors like to bet on the draft because it is easier to project a pick than one team beating another, as variance and luck play a bigger factor in games.

We will use betting odds to analyze the top 10. The NFL Draft is almost impossible to predict, especially when one player being selected can change the entire board. But using data to look at how people are betting on the draft, it’s interesting to compare it to how NFL Draft experts view the best players and team needs.

All implied probabilities will remove the wigs from the betting market to give a more accurate probability that the player is drafted at that position. Crowd-sourced odds are via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365.

Probabilities as of Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time.

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The betting market – and almost everyone – has been pretty confident about this pick for a long time. There is not much to discuss here. Williams is the man to avoid one of the biggest “upsets” in NFL Draft history.

Select possibility: 99.5 percent

This is where things get a little unclear. Daniels has been chalked up to the second overall pick in the betting markets for quite some time now and he is even the overwhelming favorite. I doubt it but the market is the same and it says the Commanders are selecting Daniels as their quarterback of the future.

Select possibility: 77.2 percent

With Daniels projected to be off the board, Mayes emerged as the big favorite for the Patriots. QB2 on our consent nfl If he falls to New England with the third pick the big board seems like a bit of a steal.

Select possibility: 64.7 percent

4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

The QB run ends here as the consensus best non-QB in the draft departs for Arizona. Just a few months ago I thought it was almost impossible that Harrison Jr. would be on the board after the third pick, but quarterback inflation allows Arizona to get their WR1 kyler murray,

Select possibility: 53.4 percent

I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers keep this pick and Jim Harbaugh drafts his former quarterback, so the betting market is indicating a trade here. With who, we’ll find out, but considering the odds of being among the first four selections, McCarthy is the favorite to be selected fifth overall.

Select possibility: 32.9 percent

Now that the quarterbacks are out of the way, the Giants are projected to find a true WR1 in Nabors. Daniel Jones He needs weapons around him and Nabors could be the most explosive player in the draft. If the Giants can move with Nabors, it would be a great selection at sixth overall.

Select possibility: 28.4 percent

The top tackle in the draft has been linked to the Titans at this pick for almost the entire time the betting markets have been open. Ault could move to No. 5 if the Chargers elect to retain their pick, but right now, the betting market thinks the Titans will get the opening-day starter on the offensive line.

Select possibility: 44.0 percent

This is where the draft starts to get weird. latu, dallas Turner, and Byron Murphy all seem like fits here, but Latu is set to make the pick this week. However, the chances of this happening are less than 15 percent so the board is open here. There are five different players with over a 10 percent chance of being selected here, so the market isn’t showing much confidence as we move past the top-7, making this mock draft a bit of a mess.

Select possibility: 14.7 percent

9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Odunze is the most likely option here but a pass-rusher is definitely a possibility as well. Odunze has a good chance to go before this selection which would see him move to the top of the list to be selected at ninth overall.

Select possibility: 24.0 percent

10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

I’m not sure if the Jets are going to go with Bowers at offensive tackle on defense. aaron rodgers But the speculative market seems to think the same. Honestly, it’s a perfect match. Rodgers added Bowers as a pass-catcher Garrett Wilson Having a lot of fun.

Select possibility: 18.4 percent

Due to the constraints offered by the betting market, picks after the top-10 have to use a slight projection. It also includes what position a team is expected to draft at and over/unders on individual player draft position and likelihood of going in the first round.

12. denver broncos:Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

18. cincinnati bengals: Tallis Gueraga, OT, Oregon State

19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Vers, EDGE, Florida State

21. miami dolphins: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

23. Minnesota Vikings (via CLE): Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

28. buffalo bill: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

29. detroit lions : Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

(Photo of Jaden Daniels: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)


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