New Delhi: Unusual trends sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean Can help predict global trends dengue epidemicIncluding case numbers and how they may change over time, according to new research. Scientists said that abnormal temperatures were observed in them, which ‘climate indicator’, can help enhance forecasting and planning outbreak responses,

Currently, rainfall and temperature are some of the climate indicators being used as early warning systems to predict disease trends like dengue, he said.

The team, including researchers from Beijing Normal University, China, reported that, for example, events involving warm sea surface temperatures caused by El Niño are known to influence the spread of dengue around the world by affecting mosquito breeding. Are.

Being able to predict the risk of outbreaks and prepare for them can be important for many areas, especially those where mosquito-borne disease is endemic, or persistently present.

However, the authors said there were shortcomings in our understanding of long-range climate drivers dengue outbreak, Their findings have been published in the journal Science.

In this study, researchers used data on annual dengue cases reported in each of 46 Southeast Asian and American countries from 1990-2019. Data on monthly cases reported from 2014-19 from 24 of these countries were also used for the analysis.

Through modeling, the team made connections between changes in climate patterns around the world and the number of seasonal and annual cases during dengue epidemics.

They found that worldwide dengue epidemics were “closely linked” to abnormalities in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean.

“We identify a specific indicator, the Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW) index, which represents the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. The IOBW is associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. is closely linked to.” The authors wrote.

In the three months before a dengue outbreakThe IOBW index was found to be an important factor in predicting the magnitude of disease and the timing of outbreaks per year in each hemisphere. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence probably arises due to its influence regional temperatureThe researchers said.

“These findings suggest that the IOBW index can potentially increase the time to predict dengue, leading to better planned and more effective outbreak responses,” the authors wrote.

However, they cautioned that further assessment is needed to evaluate the performance of their model in predicting dengue epidemics.

“Although our model demonstrates its ability to capture the observed patterns, without making premature claims about its predictive ability rigorous verification Future data would be inappropriate,” the authors wrote.